on july 17, the semi-annual report of china's economy in 2023 was released.
since the beginning of this year, as the economy and society have fully resumed normal operation, china's economic operation has gradually stabilized and improved, and the quality of development has steadily improved, but it also faces some risks and challenges.
how do you view the recovery trend in the first half of the year? what are the policy measures worth looking forward to in the second half of the year? xinhua news agency launched the "china economy roundtable" large-scale all-media interview program on the 17th, inviting fu linghui, director of the department of national economy comprehensive statistics of the national bureau of statistics, li hui, deputy director of the department of national economy comprehensive department of the national development and reform commission, and liu yuanchun, president of shanghai university of finance and economics, to talk on the stage together, focusing on the "all-round view" of the economy in the middle of the year.
shape of recovery: recovering from the world economic downturn
opening the semi-annual report, the gdp increased by 5.5% over the same period last year, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 8.2%, and the added value of the tertiary industry increased by 6.4%. a number of indicators show that china's economic operation continues to recover to a good trend, while the slowdown in some indicators such as prices and exports has also caused concern.
"on the whole, the economy has recovered and the quality of development has steadily improved." fu linghui said in an interview at the "china economic roundtable" that the economic growth in the first half of this year was significantly faster than that of the whole of last year, which is very difficult in the context of the whole world economy in the downturn.
fu linghui introduced that in the first half of the year, industrial and agricultural production continued to increase, and the overall growth of the service industry was relatively fast, especially the contact and aggregation service industry had a more obvious supporting role for the service industry. the contribution of domestic demand increased steadily, and consumption significantly boosted economic growth. high-quality development is steadily advancing, and the trend of industrial development toward medium and high-end is relatively obvious.
since the second quarter, many international organizations and institutions, including the united nations, the world bank and the oecd, have raised their forecasts for china's economic growth this year, demonstrating the confidence of the international community in china's economic development prospects.
"against the backdrop of the lack of momentum in world economic growth and the slowdown in global trade growth, the outstanding feature of china's economic growth in the first half of this year is that the contribution of domestic demand to economic growth has significantly increased compared with the same period last year and the whole of last year." li hui said at the "china economic roundtable" interview.
the growth rate of added value of equipment manufacturing industry above designated size is faster than that of the overall industry. the output of solar cells, new energy vehicles and charging piles has grown rapidly; investment in high-tech industries, as well as private investment in infrastructure and manufacturing, grew faster than overall investment. li hui said that these bright spots in the economic structure are the embodiment of the high-quality development of china's economy.
looking around the world, world economic growth continues to slow down, inflationary pressure is still relatively large, and the macroeconomic trends and policies of major economies in the world are diverging.
liu yuanchun said in the "china economic roundtable" interview that in the context of global changes and the century of epidemic observation, china's economic growth rate in the first half of this year is still a relatively high growth rate from a global perspective.
the state of pressure: objectively and dialectically view the risks and challenges in economic operation
the steady recovery of the chinese economy has not come easily, but the growth rate of some indicators has continued to fall, which has also aroused great attention at home and abroad, and there are some voices that "sing short" the chinese economy.
how do we view the risks and challenges in economic operation?
fu linghui said that the foundation for the recovery of the national economy is still not solid, the external environment is becoming more complex and severe, the world economy is fluctuating downward, some domestic structural contradictions are more prominent, and further efforts are needed to promote the sustained improvement of the economy.
for the problem of "temperature difference" between macro data and micro feelings, fu linghui believes that it is mainly caused by the comprehensiveness of macro data and the locality of micro subject feelings.
fu linghui, for example, for example, people feel more obvious consumer prices, often individuals feel that consumer prices have risen very high, but the increase in the consumer price index is still relatively moderate. one important reason is that the consumer price data uses a package of representative goods and services for comprehensive statistics, reflecting the changes in consumer prices of the whole society, but a specific person may only consume a part of the package of goods and services.
in liu yuanchun's view, the current round of recovery cannot be understood from the old perspective, and it is necessary to conduct comprehensive research and judgment from a global perspective and a historical perspective, especially from the perspective of the global epidemic disaster and global changes.
"the post-pandemic recovery is different from the normal, cyclical recovery of the past." 'this recovery is first about repairing transactions on the basis of social repair, then profit repair and balance sheet repair,' mr. liu said. 'this process will be volatile and very long, so a new perspective is needed to understand this recovery.'
in the context of global high inflation, china's prices continue to fall recently.
li hui said that the current low overall price level is affected by a number of input, cyclical, structural and seasonal factors, coupled with a high base in the same period last year, leading to a large decline in some commodity prices, pulling down the price increase from the data, but this trend is phased and temporary.
li hui said that although the adverse impact of changes in the international environment on china's economy has deepened, china's economy has achieved a positive recovery, stable prices and financial stability.
the foundation of security: the mainstream and long-term trend of economic development remain unchanged
balancing development and security is the key to ensuring sustained and healthy economic development and overall social stability.
employment is the most basic livelihood. since the beginning of this year, all parties have emphasized the work of stabilizing employment, and employment has remained generally stable, but the youth unemployment rate is still high. in june, the surveyed unemployment rate of the labor force aged 16 to 24 was 21.3%.
liu yuanchun said that in recent years, the continuous expansion of college students, combined with factors such as delayed employment and slow employment since the epidemic, has made the scale of college graduates continue to reach a new high, increasing the employment pressure.
"we should look at the employment of college students rationally." liu yuanchun said that at present, the state has put forward a package of measures to promote the employment of young people such as college graduates. for example, in the past, the spring recruitment in the university generally ended in may, but this year it was postponed, and shanghai university of finance and economics ushered in a new round of campus recruitment. another important recent measure is to provide one-to-one comprehensive assistance to those who have graduated but have been unemployed for a long time, and we have established such an employment tracking system.
food security is of paramount importance, and abundant crops in summer guarantee stability throughout the year. will this year's sudden "bad rain" affect the summer grain harvest?
li hui said that although this year's summer harvest encountered some adverse weather conditions challenges, but the whole country actively faced the summer grain harvest. the sown area for autumn grain increased steadily, the overall agricultural production situation was stable and improved, and food security was firmly guaranteed on the whole.
recently, the high temperature weather in many places in the country continues, the peak of electricity consumption of the whole network has arrived in advance, and the contradiction between supply and demand in regional and time periods is still present, so it is very important to ensure energy supply for the peak summer.
li hui said that in recent years, through the five aspects of power supply construction, fuel supply, unit management, operation scheduling and demand side management, the installed power generation has continued to grow steadily. at present, the coal storage of the unified power plant is still at a high level, and there is also a foundation for ensuring the power supply during the kurtosis summer.
when it comes to how to ensure the security of the industrial chain and supply chain, liu yuanchun believes that the most important thing is to supplement the short board and forge the long board through key technological innovation to enhance the toughness of the industrial chain and supply chain. "we need to have a strategic understanding in the process of great power game, that is, the emergence of the problem of" stuck neck "is not a product of our backwardness, but a symbol of our breakthrough and progress."
li hui said that despite many risks and challenges, the mainstream and long-term trend of china's economic development has not changed.
change in momentum: seize new opportunities for growth
how to address risks and challenges in the recovery process and restore new drivers of growth?
in liu yuanchun's view, in the accelerated evolution of the world's unprecedented major changes in a century, it is necessary to dialectically look at the current problems encountered, but also to cultivate new competitiveness and strategic cooperation points, to achieve a combination of long and short.
only by seizing new growth drivers can we seize new opportunities. fu linghui pointed out that the development of new drivers should not only pay attention to emerging industries, but also pay attention to the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries. for enterprises, there are three opportunities to focus on:
first, the development opportunities of industrial upgrading, with the expansion of residents' demand for high-quality supply, low-end manufacturing to high-end manufacturing transformation has huge potential; the second is the opportunity of the development of digital economy. the digitalization trend at the production end has accelerated, bringing new opportunities for digital transformation to enterprises. the third is the development opportunity of green transformation. the formation of green production and lifestyle is accelerating. green products and green industries have a good momentum of development and are becoming a new growth point of economic development. "new development opportunities brought by new growth drivers have broad prospects."
new energy vehicles have become a prominent highlight of china's economic development in the past two years. from the data point of view, in the first half of this year, china's new energy vehicle production and sales exceeded 3.7 million, with a growth rate of more than 40%.
li hui said that the next step will be to further improve support policies and measures, focus on guiding and encouraging new energy vehicle enterprises to seize development opportunities, enhance industrial innovation capabilities, strengthen open exchanges and cooperation, and improve the core competitiveness of the industry.
"i believe that more industries will go through this process of maturity and change, and stand out as new drivers for reshaping china's economic development in the future." li hui said.
what to do: both short-term policies and medium - and long-term reforms
at present, the outside world is paying close attention to whether china has enough room in its macro policy toolbox, and what policies and reform measures will be introduced in the next step.
li hui said that corresponding to the policy intensity of european and american countries and china in previous years, the next policy space is enough to deal with the current short-term problems.
the executive meeting of the state council held on june 16 studied a number of policy measures to promote the sustained recovery of the economy, including increasing macro-policy control, focusing on expanding effective demand, strengthening and improving the real economy, and preventing and resolving risks in key areas.
"these policies take into account both supply and demand, focus on the current and long-term, and balance development and security, reflecting the pertinence and operability of the policies." li hui said that the national development and reform commission will promote relevant parties to introduce relevant policies and measures as soon as possible, promote the joint efforts of stock policies and incremental policies, ensure that the policies are implemented and form a joint force. on the basis of full research, new reserve policies will also be planned, and the policy toolbox will be continuously enriched to ensure that it can be taken, used, and effective at key moments.
reform is a fundamental measure to stimulate the internal driving force and vitality of economic development. in liu yuanchun's view, it is necessary to organically combine the three major measures of short-term policies, medium-term structural policies, and medium - and long-term institutional and institutional reforms. "we are definitely not simply relying on policies to solve the problem in the second half of the year, but on a package." he stressed that this includes the re-positioning of short-term fiscal and monetary policies, the re-introduction of social policies, the continued implementation of strategic industrial policies, and the introduction of a series of deepening reform measures.
li hui said that in the next stage, the national development and reform commission will launch reform measures in three aspects: focus on cultivating high-quality business entities to promote reform and create a more optimized and fair market competition environment; we will carry out reforms to build a high-standard market system and make the building of a unified large market nationwide more effective. we will promote reform to better integrate effective markets with a competent government, and further improve the market access system.
"the chinese economy has never been on a smooth road. we have been strengthening our health and growing stronger in the process of coping with a series of risks and challenges, and in this process, the government has accumulated very rich experience in macro-control." li hui said.
development trend: the economy is full of confidence in the second half of the year
to understand the chinese economy, we must look at both shape and potential, at both quantity and quality, and look at both vertically and horizontally.
looking forward to the trend of the second half of the year, fu linghui said that at present, china's economy has gradually entered the stage of recovery growth after getting rid of the impact of the epidemic, and as the economic operation gradually returns to the normal track, the future will gradually shift from recovery growth to expansionary growth.
the three experts who participated in the "china's economic roundtable" agreed that although some economic indicators have fluctuated, the chinese economy has strong resilience, great potential and sufficient vitality, and the long-term fundamentals have not changed, and they are full of confidence in the trend of the chinese economy in the second half of the year.
to be specific, there are a series of positive factors supporting the steady improvement of china's economy
from the demand side, the driving role of consumption on the entire economy will continue to show. as the cycle of production and demand becomes smoother, people's willingness and confidence in consumption are expected to be further stabilized and improved. investment in infrastructure and manufacturing is resilient and will gradually play a role in boosting domestic demand and driving economic growth.
taking consumption as an example, since the beginning of this year, the relevant departments have introduced a series of new policies, including promoting the consumption of new energy vehicles and promoting household consumption, and many places are actively holding various kinds of activities to promote consumption. "overall, the trend of continued growth in consumption in the second half of the year will continue, and the overall drive for the economy will continue to play." fu linghui said.
from the perspective of production, with the gradual improvement of economic operation, on the basis of the recovery of contact service industries, more productive and consumer service industries will also gradually improve, and further give play to the important role of the service industry in stabilizing growth.
in the medium and long term, china's innovation-driven momentum is increasing, its economic development potential and space are huge, its development foundation is solid, it has the advantages of a very large market and a complete industrial system, and the quality of its labor force is constantly improving.
"although the chinese economy faces some difficulties and challenges, overall, the overall economic performance will gradually improve in the second half of the year, some macro indicators will gradually stabilize, and the good development trend will be maintained on the whole." fu linghui said.
firm confidence, adhere to development, adhere to innovation.
"we must face up to short-term fluctuations in the chinese economy, but we must also see a long-term positive trend in the chinese economy." "with the further implementation of the decisions and arrangements of the party central committee and the state council, we have the confidence, conditions and ability to continue to optimize the economic structure, continue to strengthen the growth momentum and continue to improve the development trend," ms. li said.
source: xinhua